Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION...LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION AND APPEARS TO BE ATTACHED TO THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS BUT IT
IS STILL ON A WEAKENING TREND. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. 
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE OR THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
DERIVED FROM MODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS BASICALLY
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 11.0N 101.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 11.0N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 11.0N 102.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 11.0N 103.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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