ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005 THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION...LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND APPEARS TO BE ATTACHED TO THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS BUT IT IS STILL ON A WEAKENING TREND. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE OR THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM MODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS BASICALLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 11.0N 101.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 11.0N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 16/1800Z 11.0N 102.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/0600Z 11.0N 103.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 15-Oct-2005 20:40:29 UTC