Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005
THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION AND LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION. IN FACT...THERE WAS NOT MUCH TO BEGIN WITH. T-NUMBERS
HAVE COME DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25
KNOTS. LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS NO STRONG WINDS AND NO CIRCULATION.
BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUITY...I AM FORECASTING
A LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAKENING
TREND OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON.
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM
MODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.0N 101.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 11.0N 101.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 11.0N 104.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 11.0N 105.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 11.0N 107.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 11.0N 108.5W 35 KT
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