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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005
 
THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION AND LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION. IN FACT...THERE WAS NOT MUCH TO BEGIN WITH. T-NUMBERS
HAVE COME DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25
KNOTS. LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS NO STRONG WINDS AND NO CIRCULATION.
BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUITY...I AM FORECASTING
A LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAKENING
TREND OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON.   

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM
MODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE.    
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 11.0N 101.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 11.0N 101.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 11.0N 102.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 11.0N 103.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 11.0N 104.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 11.0N 105.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 11.0N 107.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 11.0N 108.5W    35 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 15-Oct-2005 14:40:22 UTC