ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION AND LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION. IN FACT...THERE WAS NOT MUCH TO BEGIN WITH. T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS. LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS NO STRONG WINDS AND NO CIRCULATION. BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUITY...I AM FORECASTING A LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM MODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.0N 101.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 11.0N 101.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 11.0N 104.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 11.0N 105.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 11.0N 107.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 11.0N 108.5W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 15-Oct-2005 14:40:22 UTC