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Hurricane OTIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2005
 
EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A 0126Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION
INDICATE THAT OTIS REMAINS SHEARED ABOUT 45 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE REMAINING CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES ARE 35 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND AN
UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN OTIS TO
A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 330/6. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN THE
LOW/MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER MEXICO.
AFTERWARD...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A NARROW LOW/MID- LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA CAUSING
OTIS TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND THE SHALLOW GFS
BETA ADVECTION MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OFFSHORE...PARALLELING THE COAST...THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 24.0N 112.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 24.7N 113.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 25.5N 113.7W    25 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 26.4N 114.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 27.0N 114.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 27.6N 115.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 28.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 03-Oct-2005 09:25:24 UTC