ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2005 EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A 0126Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION INDICATE THAT OTIS REMAINS SHEARED ABOUT 45 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 35 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN OTIS TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 330/6. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN THE LOW/MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER MEXICO. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A NARROW LOW/MID- LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA CAUSING OTIS TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND THE SHALLOW GFS BETA ADVECTION MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OFFSHORE...PARALLELING THE COAST...THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 24.0N 112.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 24.7N 113.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 25.5N 113.7W 25 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 26.4N 114.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 05/0600Z 27.0N 114.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0600Z 27.6N 115.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 03-Oct-2005 09:25:24 UTC