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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE VIGOROUS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 350 NMI SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. A
LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE WEST
OF THE TIGHT-LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND DATA T-NUMBERS
USING A SHEAR PATTERN ARE AT LEAST T2.5/35 KT. IN ADDITION... A
23/0046Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS CONTAINED SEVERAL 30-KT NON-RAINFLAGGED
WIND VECTORS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT WIND
DATA WAS NEAR THE SWATH EDGE...THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THE PROGRESSIVELY DECREASING WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST. WHILE
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING STARTED AT 30 KT SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT
PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07. A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WAS NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ROTATING WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO THE NORTH OF THE MORE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION HAS
SINCE WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST SIDE AND LIKELY HAS BEEN STRETCHED 
OUT INTO THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
OF PREVIOUS SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THERE IS A LARGE BUT WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DEPRESSION...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
MEDIUM BAM MODEL AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOTION INDICATED IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS.

THERE IS SOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF ABOUT 10-15
KT CURRENTLY AFFECTING TD-14E. HOWEVER... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE 12-36 HOUR PERIOD... BEFORE
INCREASING QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN AFTER THAT. WITH THE
DECREASING SHEAR AND DEPRESSION MOVING OVER 28C-28.5C SSTS FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION AT A TYPICAL 1 T-NUMBER PER
24 HOURS RATE IS FORECAST UNTIL THE INCREASING SHEAR KICKS BACK
IN... AFTER WHICH SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...
IF THE SHEAR ABATES THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD... THEN THE CYCLONE
COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR HURRICANE STATUS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0500Z 15.1N 108.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N 109.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.8N 112.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N 113.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W    45 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W    35 KT
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Sep-2005 05:10:22 UTC