ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 350 NMI SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE TIGHT-LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND DATA T-NUMBERS USING A SHEAR PATTERN ARE AT LEAST T2.5/35 KT. IN ADDITION... A 23/0046Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS CONTAINED SEVERAL 30-KT NON-RAINFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT WIND DATA WAS NEAR THE SWATH EDGE...THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PROGRESSIVELY DECREASING WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING STARTED AT 30 KT SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07. A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ROTATING WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE MORE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION HAS SINCE WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST SIDE AND LIKELY HAS BEEN STRETCHED OUT INTO THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THERE IS A LARGE BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DEPRESSION... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOTION INDICATED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS SOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF ABOUT 10-15 KT CURRENTLY AFFECTING TD-14E. HOWEVER... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE 12-36 HOUR PERIOD... BEFORE INCREASING QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN AFTER THAT. WITH THE DECREASING SHEAR AND DEPRESSION MOVING OVER 28C-28.5C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION AT A TYPICAL 1 T-NUMBER PER 24 HOURS RATE IS FORECAST UNTIL THE INCREASING SHEAR KICKS BACK IN... AFTER WHICH SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER... IF THE SHEAR ABATES THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD... THEN THE CYCLONE COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR HURRICANE STATUS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0500Z 15.1N 108.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 15.5N 109.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 16.8N 112.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 113.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W 45 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Sep-2005 05:10:22 UTC