Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane MAX


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005

MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE.  MAX'S DAYS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE NUMBERED...AS A
CONTINUED SPINDOWN OVER COOL WATERS IS EXPECTED.  MAX IS FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...IF
PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED TOMORROW
MORNING.

STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME QUITE WEAK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ABOUT 290/3.  A LARGE TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS LIKELY TO
KEEP THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE QUITE WEAK
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS MAX WEAKENS...IT IS RESPONDING
MAINLY TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING...AND THERE IS ONLY AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  A MAINLY WESTWARD DRIFT
IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWED BY LITTLE MOTION
THEREAFTER.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 21.8N 121.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.8N 122.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 21.6N 123.1W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 21.3N 123.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 124.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Sep-2005 02:40:22 UTC