ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. MAX'S DAYS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE NUMBERED...AS A CONTINUED SPINDOWN OVER COOL WATERS IS EXPECTED. MAX IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED TOMORROW MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME QUITE WEAK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 290/3. A LARGE TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE QUITE WEAK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS MAX WEAKENS...IT IS RESPONDING MAINLY TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING...AND THERE IS ONLY AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A MAINLY WESTWARD DRIFT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWED BY LITTLE MOTION THEREAFTER. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 21.8N 121.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 21.8N 122.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 21.6N 123.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 23/1200Z 21.3N 123.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/0000Z 21.0N 124.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 27/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Sep-2005 02:40:22 UTC