Hurricane MAX

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TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005
 
DEEP CONVECTION IS VANISHING...AND SO THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON MAX'S
STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 45 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND CONTINUED DECAY OVER COOL WATERS IS
EXPECTED.  IF NO DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS...MAX COULD BE DECLARED A
REMNANT LOW BY TOMORROW MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/4.  12Z MODELS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MAX AND BRING A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THIS PRODUCES A MUCH SLOWER
WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WITH A SOUTHWARD TREND LATE AS LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLIES
OVERSWEEP THE AREA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD
AND SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 21.7N 121.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 21.7N 121.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.7N 122.9W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 21.5N 123.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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