ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 DEEP CONVECTION IS VANISHING...AND SO THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON MAX'S STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND CONTINUED DECAY OVER COOL WATERS IS EXPECTED. IF NO DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS...MAX COULD BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/4. 12Z MODELS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MAX AND BRING A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS PRODUCES A MUCH SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH A SOUTHWARD TREND LATE AS LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLIES OVERSWEEP THE AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 21.7N 121.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 21.7N 121.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 21.7N 122.9W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 23/0600Z 21.5N 123.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Sep-2005 20:55:20 UTC