Hurricane MAX

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TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS LAST NIGHT HAD A 50 KT VECTOR RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF
THE PASS...BUT ONLY A PORTION OF THE STORM WAS SAMPLED.  AVERAGING
THE CI AND T DVORAK NUMBERS ALSO GIVES ABOUT 50 KT FOR THE INITIAL
INTENSITY.  DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND IS LIMITED TO A
COUPLE BANDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  MAX IS OVER COOL WATERS
AND CONTINUED DECAY IS EXPECTED.

MICROWAVE PASSES REQUIRE A MODEST ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/6.
A NARROW LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MAX MORE WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 21.7N 120.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 22.1N 121.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 22.2N 122.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N 123.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 124.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 21.8N 126.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 21.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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