ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 A QUIKSCAT PASS LAST NIGHT HAD A 50 KT VECTOR RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE PASS...BUT ONLY A PORTION OF THE STORM WAS SAMPLED. AVERAGING THE CI AND T DVORAK NUMBERS ALSO GIVES ABOUT 50 KT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND IS LIMITED TO A COUPLE BANDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. MAX IS OVER COOL WATERS AND CONTINUED DECAY IS EXPECTED. MICROWAVE PASSES REQUIRE A MODEST ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/6. A NARROW LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MAX MORE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 21.7N 120.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 22.1N 121.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 22.2N 122.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 22.2N 123.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 22.0N 124.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 24/1200Z 21.8N 126.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/1200Z 21.5N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Sep-2005 14:40:21 UTC