Hurricane MAX

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HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005

MAX HAS BEEN MOVING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  HOWEVER THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE...SAVE
THE LBAR MODEL...IS UNANIMOUS ON A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL
MODEL 1-4 DAY FORECASTS OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE ALONG 29N. AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS A LARGE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG 120W.  HOWEVER...BY
THAT TIME...MAX WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO A SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RAGGED EYE WITH MODERATELY COLD
SURROUNDING CONVECTION.  THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CALIFORNIA LOW.  CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT.  MAX IS MOVING OVER 24 DEG C
WATERS...AND WILL BE ENCOUNTERING EVEN COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING ABOUT WEAKENING.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WEAKENS MAX EVEN
MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 21.1N 119.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 21.8N 120.4W    60 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 22.1N 121.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 22.2N 122.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N 124.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N 126.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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