ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 MAX HAS BEEN MOVING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE...SAVE THE LBAR MODEL...IS UNANIMOUS ON A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL 1-4 DAY FORECASTS OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ALONG 29N. AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A LARGE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG 120W. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME...MAX WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO A SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RAGGED EYE WITH MODERATELY COLD SURROUNDING CONVECTION. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CALIFORNIA LOW. CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT. MAX IS MOVING OVER 24 DEG C WATERS...AND WILL BE ENCOUNTERING EVEN COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING ABOUT WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WEAKENS MAX EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 21.1N 119.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 21.8N 120.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.1N 121.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 22.2N 122.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 22.2N 124.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 126.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Sep-2005 02:40:22 UTC