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Hurricane MAX


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005

EVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...
FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED AROUND THE CENTER OF MAX
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO T4.5 OR 77 KT WHILE AFWA REMAINS AT A
T4.0 OR 65 KT. THE ABOVE INFORMATION WARRANTS BUMPING UP THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF MAX TO 70 KT. HOWEVER...THIS INCREASED
INTENSITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS AND MAY EVEN OCCUR
SOONER ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 320/9. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST AS THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED.  MAX IS
BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF MAX...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN MAX TO THE WEST IN TWO
DAYS. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.   
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 19.5N 119.2W    70 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 119.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 21.4N 121.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 21.9N 122.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 21.9N 123.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 21.8N 125.7W    30 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N 128.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     25/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 15:10:20 UTC