ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 EVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS... FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED AROUND THE CENTER OF MAX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO T4.5 OR 77 KT WHILE AFWA REMAINS AT A T4.0 OR 65 KT. THE ABOVE INFORMATION WARRANTS BUMPING UP THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF MAX TO 70 KT. HOWEVER...THIS INCREASED INTENSITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS AND MAY EVEN OCCUR SOONER ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 320/9. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. MAX IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF MAX...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN MAX TO THE WEST IN TWO DAYS. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 19.5N 119.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 119.9W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 21.4N 121.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 21.9N 122.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 21.9N 123.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 21.8N 125.7W 30 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 128.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 25/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 15:10:20 UTC