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Hurricane MAX


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005

A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMED AROUND THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE...ALMOST LIKE AN OUTER EYEWALL.  HOWEVER MAX IS PROBABLY
NOT A STRONG ENOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BE UNDERGOING A TRUE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT. 
MAX CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW PATTERN...BUT IT IS
BEGINNING TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS.  THUS...A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BEYOND 48
HOURS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE RAPID WEAKENING MAY
OCCUR THAN SHOWN HERE.

INITIAL MOTION...320/9...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO
THE FORECAST REASONING.  MAX IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR TEXAS. 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF MAX.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
WEAKENED CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS THROUGH 4 DAYS
BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AT DAY 5...AT WHICH TIME THE NOGAPS TRACK
SEEMS TO HAVE ADDED AN UNREALISTICALLY TOO FAR SOUTH COMPONENT OF
MOTION TO THE CONSENSUS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED A BIT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 19.0N 118.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N 119.4W    65 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 21.7N 121.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N 122.7W    45 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N 128.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 08:40:22 UTC