ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMED AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...ALMOST LIKE AN OUTER EYEWALL. HOWEVER MAX IS PROBABLY NOT A STRONG ENOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BE UNDERGOING A TRUE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT. MAX CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW PATTERN...BUT IT IS BEGINNING TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS. THUS...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE RAPID WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THAN SHOWN HERE. INITIAL MOTION...320/9...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING. MAX IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF MAX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE WEAKENED CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS THROUGH 4 DAYS BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AT DAY 5...AT WHICH TIME THE NOGAPS TRACK SEEMS TO HAVE ADDED AN UNREALISTICALLY TOO FAR SOUTH COMPONENT OF MOTION TO THE CONSENSUS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED A BIT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 19.0N 118.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 119.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 21.7N 121.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 22.0N 122.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 22.0N 128.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 25/0600Z 21.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 08:40:22 UTC