Tropical Storm MAX

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TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005
 
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0405Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICT IMPROVED
BANDING OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT
FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE
IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
INCREASING VENTILATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM...WITH A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE FORECAST INTENSITY CALLS FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
36 HOUR PERIOD. THEN...MAX SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER...24
DEGREES CELSIUS...WATERS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/8. A MID- LAYER RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS IS STEERING MAX IN A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A DEEP- LAYER
LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
LIFT OUT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...CAUSING MAX
TO TURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS...AND SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER
AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 16.3N 116.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 117.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 118.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 19.8N 121.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N 123.4W    40 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 22.5N 126.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     24/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W    20 KT
 
 
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