ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0405Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICT IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS INCREASING VENTILATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM...WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE FORECAST INTENSITY CALLS FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. THEN...MAX SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER...24 DEGREES CELSIUS...WATERS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/8. A MID- LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS IS STEERING MAX IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A DEEP- LAYER LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...CAUSING MAX TO TURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER AFTER 72 HOURS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.3N 116.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 117.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 118.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 21.0N 123.4W 40 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 126.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2005 20:55:21 UTC