Tropical Storm MAX

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TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVED OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF
THE CYCLONE...AND A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. 18Z DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON
THE ABOVE DATA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM MAX. MAX IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LIDIA TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ABSORPTION OF LIDIA BY THE
LARGER CIRCULATION OF MAX IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.
UNTIL THIS OCCURS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/10. ONCE THE TWO CYCLONES
BECOME ONE CIRCULATION...MAX IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS
IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FIVE
DAY FORECAST PERIOD. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WHEN THE CYCLONE
REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THIS FORECAST REASONING
FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS MAINLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL FORECAST. 
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 15.4N 114.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.1N 116.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.1N 117.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.1N 119.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W    45 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N 122.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     23/1800Z 26.5N 127.0W    20 KT
 
 
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