ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVED OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE...AND A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MAX. MAX IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIDIA TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ABSORPTION OF LIDIA BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF MAX IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/10. ONCE THE TWO CYCLONES BECOME ONE CIRCULATION...MAX IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THIS FORECAST REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.4N 114.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.1N 116.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.1N 117.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.1N 119.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 122.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 26.5N 127.0W 20 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Sep-2005 21:10:20 UTC