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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KENNETH HAS A SMALL BUT
WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. 
RECENT SSM/IS AND SSM/I OVERPASSES SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE
UNDERNEATH THE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN 65 KT BASED ON THE TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE EYE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/3.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 145W BETWEEN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NORTH OF HAWAII AND A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
KENNETH.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY
FORECASTING KENNETH TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER
THAT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW MID/UPPER-
LEVEL LOW NORTH OF KENNETH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS
SCENARIO BUT STAY SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE GIVE THE HISTORY OF SLOW
MOTION OF THIS STORM.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36 HR AND THEN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTERWARDS. 

KENNETH IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD AT
LEAST ALLOW FOR IT TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR 24-36 HR. 
AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. 
WHILE NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
SHIPS MODEL AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 16.5N 139.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.3N 140.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 16.2N 140.6W    65 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 16.1N 141.2W    65 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 16.2N 142.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 17.5N 144.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 146.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 149.5W    35 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Sep-2005 08:40:19 UTC