ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KENNETH HAS A SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. RECENT SSM/IS AND SSM/I OVERPASSES SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE UNDERNEATH THE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT BASED ON THE TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES AND THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 145W BETWEEN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NORTH OF HAWAII AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECASTING KENNETH TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW MID/UPPER- LEVEL LOW NORTH OF KENNETH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO BUT STAY SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE GIVE THE HISTORY OF SLOW MOTION OF THIS STORM. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36 HR AND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTERWARDS. KENNETH IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW FOR IT TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. WHILE NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 16.5N 139.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 16.3N 140.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 16.2N 140.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 16.1N 141.2W 65 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 16.2N 142.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 17.5N 144.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 146.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 149.5W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Sep-2005 08:40:19 UTC