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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005
 
TRMM AND AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AT 24/0922Z AND 24/1034Z...
RESPECTIVELY... INDICATED 50 AND 75 PERCENT EYEWALLS IN THE
MID-LEVELS. ALSO... 1730Z-1830Z GOES-10 VISIBLE IMAGES BRIEFLY
CONTAINED A RAGGED EYE FEATURE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER... BASED
ON THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGERY... AND A
24/1507Z NESDIS CIRA AMSU INTENSITY OF 992 MB AND 57 KT... THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
HAS ALSO IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL DUE TO A DECREASE IN
THE VERTICAL SHEAR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/3. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
PASSES ALSO REVEALED THAT THE PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD REDEVELOPED UNDERNEATH THE VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. AS A RESULT...THE 06Z AND 12Z BEST TRACK
POSITIONS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD... AND THE 18Z POSITION
WAS PLACED IN THE CENTER OF THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT RELOCATION OF THE CENTER POSITION...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH. THE WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO NUDGE KENNETH SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. BY 72 HOURS
... THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PINCH OFF AND
DEVELOP A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD ACT
STEER KENNETH NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD. THIS SCENARIO IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SOONER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE
FORECASTING. AS SUCH... SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS NOW FORECAST
SINCE THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 0-5 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. USUALLY SUCH LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS
WOULD FAVOR MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION THAN INDICATED BY THE
CURRENT FORECAST... BUT THE INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN A LITTLE DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL HMIDITIES OF 25-30 PERCENT AND
SSTS OF 26.5-27C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
SHIPS MODEL... ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 16.2N 139.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.3N 139.4W    65 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 139.8W    70 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 15.8N 140.2W    70 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 15.9N 141.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 17.4N 142.6W    60 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 144.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 147.0W    45 KT

$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Sep-2005 20:40:23 UTC