ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005 TRMM AND AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AT 24/0922Z AND 24/1034Z... RESPECTIVELY... INDICATED 50 AND 75 PERCENT EYEWALLS IN THE MID-LEVELS. ALSO... 1730Z-1830Z GOES-10 VISIBLE IMAGES BRIEFLY CONTAINED A RAGGED EYE FEATURE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER... BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGERY... AND A 24/1507Z NESDIS CIRA AMSU INTENSITY OF 992 MB AND 57 KT... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL DUE TO A DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/3. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO REVEALED THAT THE PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD REDEVELOPED UNDERNEATH THE VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AS A RESULT...THE 06Z AND 12Z BEST TRACK POSITIONS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD... AND THE 18Z POSITION WAS PLACED IN THE CENTER OF THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT RELOCATION OF THE CENTER POSITION... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH. THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO NUDGE KENNETH SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. BY 72 HOURS ... THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PINCH OFF AND DEVELOP A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD ACT STEER KENNETH NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SOONER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING. AS SUCH... SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS NOW FORECAST SINCE THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 0-5 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. USUALLY SUCH LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION THAN INDICATED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST... BUT THE INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN A LITTLE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL HMIDITIES OF 25-30 PERCENT AND SSTS OF 26.5-27C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS MODEL... ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 16.2N 139.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 16.3N 139.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 16.0N 139.8W 70 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 15.8N 140.2W 70 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 15.9N 141.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.4N 142.6W 60 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 19.0N 144.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 29/1800Z 19.5N 147.0W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Sep-2005 20:40:23 UTC