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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005
 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0356Z SSM/I OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT
THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS BENEATH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. APPARENTLY...MID- LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0342Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A UNIFORMED
SWATH OF 40 KT VECTORS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT WINDS AND THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS KENNETH AT 40 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/3. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITHIN A WEAK MID-
LAYER STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH.
THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDN AND THE GFS
AGREE ON A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
MID- LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF KENNETH. THE GFDL...HOWEVER..CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST AN ABRUPT TURN NORTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM MAX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 16.0N 138.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 138.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 139.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 140.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 140.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 16.0N 141.4W    40 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 17.0N 142.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 18.0N 143.5W    35 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Sep-2005 08:40:22 UTC