ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0356Z SSM/I OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS BENEATH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. APPARENTLY...MID- LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0342Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A UNIFORMED SWATH OF 40 KT VECTORS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT WINDS AND THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS KENNETH AT 40 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/3. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITHIN A WEAK MID- LAYER STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH. THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDN AND THE GFS AGREE ON A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID- LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF KENNETH. THE GFDL...HOWEVER..CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ABRUPT TURN NORTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM MAX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 16.0N 138.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 16.0N 138.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 139.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 16.0N 140.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 16.0N 140.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 16.0N 141.4W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 17.0N 142.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 29/0600Z 18.0N 143.5W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Sep-2005 08:40:22 UTC