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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005
 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED CLOUD
PATTERN THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION...WHAT LITTLE REMAINS...IS
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 0320Z QUIKSCAT
AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS...SINCE THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
45 KT TO 55 KT...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS DECREASING TO 35 KT AND 45 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS...SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN
KENNETH TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. 

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/3. KENNETH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH DURING THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS...THEN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL TRADE FLOW AS A WEAKENED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS BASED PRIMARILY OFF THE CONU CONSENSUS
MODEL...IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
SLOWER BEYOND 72 HOURS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 13.6N 131.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 13.9N 132.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N 133.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 15.4N 133.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 16.7N 134.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0600Z 19.0N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Sep-2005 08:40:23 UTC