ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED CLOUD PATTERN THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION...WHAT LITTLE REMAINS...IS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 0320Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS...SINCE THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 55 KT...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS DECREASING TO 35 KT AND 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN KENNETH TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/3. KENNETH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS...THEN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW AS A WEAKENED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS BASED PRIMARILY OFF THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL...IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SLOWER BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 13.6N 131.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 13.9N 132.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 15.0N 133.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 15.4N 133.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 16.7N 134.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0600Z 19.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Sep-2005 08:40:23 UTC