Hurricane KENNETH

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005

KENNETH REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING BUT MINI CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM SAB...TAFB AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 6.0 OR 115 KT AND
ESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS AODT ARE 6.4 RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR KENNETH REMAINS AT 115 KT OR CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/5. THE GFDL AND GFS TRACKS
STILL INSIST ON MOVING KENNETH NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HRS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP LAYERED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE CONTINUES MOVING THE TROPICAL CYCONE ON A MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST TRACK AS STRONGER RIDGING REMAINS NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE NOGAPS AND THE
CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE IN A GENERAL SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST
TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL...IT CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS SHEAR INCREASING BEYOND
60 HRS BUT THE SSTS REMAIN ABOVE 26 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE
STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HRS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...KENNETH IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 14.3N 129.8W   115 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 14.4N 130.6W   110 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 14.7N 131.4W   100 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 15.0N 132.2W    90 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 15.3N 132.9W    80 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 16.0N 134.2W    65 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W    50 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN