ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 KENNETH REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING BUT MINI CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 6.0 OR 115 KT AND ESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS AODT ARE 6.4 RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR KENNETH REMAINS AT 115 KT OR CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/5. THE GFDL AND GFS TRACKS STILL INSIST ON MOVING KENNETH NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HRS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYERED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE CONTINUES MOVING THE TROPICAL CYCONE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST TRACK AS STRONGER RIDGING REMAINS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE NOGAPS AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE IN A GENERAL SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...IT CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS SHEAR INCREASING BEYOND 60 HRS BUT THE SSTS REMAIN ABOVE 26 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HRS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 14.3N 129.8W 115 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 14.4N 130.6W 110 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 14.7N 131.4W 100 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 15.0N 132.2W 90 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 15.3N 132.9W 80 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 16.0N 134.2W 65 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Sep-2005 21:10:20 UTC