Hurricane KENNETH

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005
 
ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE TOPS OVER THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE INNER CORE HAVE COOLED.  A WHITE BAND PRACTICALLY
SURROUNDED THE EYE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A VERY SMALL BREAK OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AGAIN REMAIN UNCHANGED
AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/6. THE NARROW MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED
LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW AND TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AN AGGRESSIVE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE LOW...
TURNING KENNETH SHARPLY TO THE NORTH IN 48 HOURS. ALL OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A SEEMINGLY MORE REASONABLE AND LESS
AGGRESSIVE TURN INTO THE BREAK...WHICH IS USED AS THE BASIS FOR THE
FORECAST TRACK.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY REDUCED BASED ON THE 0300Z
QUIKSCAT PASS. 
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 14.3N 128.8W   105 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 14.4N 129.6W   100 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 14.7N 130.6W    90 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 15.4N 132.3W    70 KT
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     23/0600Z 18.0N 136.5W    50 KT
 
 
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