ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE TOPS OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE INNER CORE HAVE COOLED. A WHITE BAND PRACTICALLY SURROUNDED THE EYE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A VERY SMALL BREAK OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AGAIN REMAIN UNCHANGED AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/6. THE NARROW MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW AND TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN AGGRESSIVE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE LOW... TURNING KENNETH SHARPLY TO THE NORTH IN 48 HOURS. ALL OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A SEEMINGLY MORE REASONABLE AND LESS AGGRESSIVE TURN INTO THE BREAK...WHICH IS USED AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST TRACK. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY REDUCED BASED ON THE 0300Z QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 14.3N 128.8W 105 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 14.4N 129.6W 100 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 14.7N 130.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 15.4N 132.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 18.0N 136.5W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Sep-2005 08:56:06 UTC