Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
 
A 0435Z SSMI OVERPASS AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL
SYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A ROUND...13 NM CLEAR EYE. CORE
CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND THE AODT SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 117 KT.  06Z DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES CLIMBED TO 90 KT.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 110 KT. THE SHIPS AN THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR 24 HOURS BEFORE
INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE GFDL DROPS THE INTENSITY TO 75
KT IN 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HEDGES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE...MAINTAINING 90 KT AT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS ALONG THE SYSTEM'S PATH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS ...AND INTO A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NEAR 135W THEREAFTER. THE GFDL AND THE GFS
SUGGEST A MORE ABRUPT TURN TO THE NORTH NEAR 131/132W...WHILE THE
NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN AND THE UKMET INDICATE A GRADUAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE WEAKNESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. THE ONLY OUTLIER IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE UKMET WHICH
SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY FASTER SPEED OF ADVANCE THROUGH DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
FOLLOWS THE CONU/GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS.
 
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 13.6N 125.8W   110 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 13.9N 126.8W   105 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 14.3N 127.8W    90 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 14.7N 128.6W    80 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 15.1N 129.4W    75 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 15.8N 131.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N 133.5W    55 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 09:10:37 UTC