ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 A 0435Z SSMI OVERPASS AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL SYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A ROUND...13 NM CLEAR EYE. CORE CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE AODT SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 117 KT. 06Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES CLIMBED TO 90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 110 KT. THE SHIPS AN THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR 24 HOURS BEFORE INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE GFDL DROPS THE INTENSITY TO 75 KT IN 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HEDGES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE...MAINTAINING 90 KT AT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS ALONG THE SYSTEM'S PATH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS ...AND INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NEAR 135W THEREAFTER. THE GFDL AND THE GFS SUGGEST A MORE ABRUPT TURN TO THE NORTH NEAR 131/132W...WHILE THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN AND THE UKMET INDICATE A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE WEAKNESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE ONLY OUTLIER IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE UKMET WHICH SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY FASTER SPEED OF ADVANCE THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE CONU/GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 13.6N 125.8W 110 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 13.9N 126.8W 105 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.8W 90 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.6W 80 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 15.1N 129.4W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 15.8N 131.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.5W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 09:10:37 UTC