Hurricane KENNETH

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005
 
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM 4.0 TO 5.0 FROM THE THREE AGENCIES
...THIS YIELDS AN AVERAGE DATA-T OF 4.5 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HOLDS AT 75 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY EFFECT.
DESPITE THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS...THE OVERALL OUTFLOW OF THE CYCLONE
HAS IMPROVED. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS RUN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES KENNETH BRIEFLY TO 85 KT
IN 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS KENNETH ENCOUNTERS
SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED
BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF 18N WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND TAKE KENNETH ON A
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE CENTER OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 13.1N 124.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 13.4N 125.3W    85 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 13.8N 126.5W    80 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 14.3N 127.7W    80 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 14.6N 128.8W    75 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 15.0N 130.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 15.5N 132.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 16.0N 134.0W    55 KT
 
 
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