ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM 4.0 TO 5.0 FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ...THIS YIELDS AN AVERAGE DATA-T OF 4.5 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HOLDS AT 75 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY EFFECT. DESPITE THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS...THE OVERALL OUTFLOW OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES KENNETH BRIEFLY TO 85 KT IN 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS KENNETH ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF 18N WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND TAKE KENNETH ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE CENTER OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 13.1N 124.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 13.4N 125.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 13.8N 126.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 14.6N 128.8W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 130.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 15.5N 132.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 16.0N 134.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 16-Sep-2005 20:55:42 UTC