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Tropical Storm KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005
 
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED CLOUD PATTERN
FOR KENNETH...WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND NOT A LOT OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/5.  KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE...AND IS IN BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST AND AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE EAST.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THAT KENNETH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD...POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS THE DISTURBANCE TO
THE EAST DEVELOPS AND GETS CLOSER.  THE GFDL AND GFS CALL FOR A
LOOP AS KENNETH INTERACTS WITH THE DISTURBANCE.  SINCE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT AGREE WITH THIS...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
INTERACTION AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS... GUNA...AND CONU FOR THE
FIRST 72 HR...THEN A BIT FASTER AFTER THAT TIME.

KENNETH IS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM INTO
COOLER WATERS IN 48-72 HR...AND KENNETH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN UNTIL THEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 70 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL 80 KT FORECAST
AND THE SHIPS 65 KT FORECAST.  AFTER 72 HR...KENNETH SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER.

SHOULD KENNETH AND THE DISTURBANCE INTERACT...BOTH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED CONSIDERABLE REVISION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 13.0N 120.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.1N 121.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 13.3N 122.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 13.6N 123.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 13.9N 125.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 14.5N 127.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W    55 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 15-Sep-2005 20:55:19 UTC