ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED CLOUD PATTERN FOR KENNETH...WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND NOT A LOT OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/5. KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND IS IN BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST AND AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE EAST. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT KENNETH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD...POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST DEVELOPS AND GETS CLOSER. THE GFDL AND GFS CALL FOR A LOOP AS KENNETH INTERACTS WITH THE DISTURBANCE. SINCE OTHER MODELS DO NOT AGREE WITH THIS...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL NOT FORECAST ANY INTERACTION AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS... GUNA...AND CONU FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN A BIT FASTER AFTER THAT TIME. KENNETH IS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM INTO COOLER WATERS IN 48-72 HR...AND KENNETH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN UNTIL THEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL 80 KT FORECAST AND THE SHIPS 65 KT FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...KENNETH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER. SHOULD KENNETH AND THE DISTURBANCE INTERACT...BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED CONSIDERABLE REVISION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.0N 120.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.1N 121.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 13.3N 122.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 13.6N 123.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 13.9N 125.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 127.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 15-Sep-2005 20:55:19 UTC