Tropical Storm KENNETH

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TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLUSTER OF VERY STRONG
CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -80C WHICH HAVE
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 6-8 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KENNETH...THE ELEVENTH
TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. 

INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 35 KT. LAST EVENING THE
CENTER WAS EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION...BUT LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW UNDERNEATH THE 
STRONG CONVECTION. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY LIGHT EASTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 20N-25N. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE KENNETH'S PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM
JOVA TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN KENNETH...THEREBY LESSENING THE CHANCES OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES. BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 125W.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED RATHER TIGHTLY ALONG A WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER IN
FORWARD SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MODELS SHOW
SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS CONTINUING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK...AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL WHICH TURNS KENNETH IN A
CYCLONIC LOOP. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A BIT SLOWER. 
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 13.1N 119.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 13.5N 120.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 13.9N 121.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 14.3N 123.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 14.7N 124.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N 128.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 131.5W    50 KT
 
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