ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLUSTER OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -80C WHICH HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 6-8 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KENNETH...THE ELEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 35 KT. LAST EVENING THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW UNDERNEATH THE STRONG CONVECTION. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY LIGHT EASTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 20N-25N. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE KENNETH'S PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN KENNETH...THEREBY LESSENING THE CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 125W. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED RATHER TIGHTLY ALONG A WEST- NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER IN FORWARD SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MODELS SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS CONTINUING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL WHICH TURNS KENNETH IN A CYCLONIC LOOP. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A BIT SLOWER. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 13.1N 119.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 13.5N 120.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 13.9N 121.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 14.3N 123.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 14.7N 124.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 128.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 131.5W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 15-Sep-2005 09:10:19 UTC