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Hurricane JOVA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
 
AN IMPRESSIVE OUTER BAND CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WHILE
THE BAND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS EXPANDED AND NOW COVERS THE E
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90
KT.
 
THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KT...CONTINUING THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEREAFTER
JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS
AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8.  JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST
IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED 660 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 12.3N 138.3W    90 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.4N 139.0W    95 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 12.9N 140.6W    95 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 13.4N 141.7W    95 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 14.1N 142.9W    90 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 15.3N 144.6W    80 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 146.3W    65 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 18.4N 148.3W    65 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 15:10:20 UTC