ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 AN IMPRESSIVE OUTER BAND CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WHILE THE BAND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS EXPANDED AND NOW COVERS THE E SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KT...CONTINUING THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEREAFTER JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8. JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED 660 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.3N 138.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.4N 139.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.9N 140.6W 95 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 13.4N 141.7W 95 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 14.1N 142.9W 90 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 15.3N 144.6W 80 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 146.3W 65 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 18.4N 148.3W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 15:10:20 UTC