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Tropical Storm JOVA
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005
THE CENTER OF JOVA IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...EVEN WITH
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND THIS MAKES THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
40 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO VALUES. JOVA REMAINS A
SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH NO DEEP BANDING AND A SMALL BUT
EXPANDING REA OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE PRESUMED CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR AND A LIMITED OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD
NOT BE PROHIBITIVE AND THE WATERS WILL BE WARM FOR THE NEXT 3-4
DAYS...SO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BRING JOVA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. JOVA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND HENCE A BASIC WESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED.
AFTER 72 HOURS...MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD SLOW AND BEND THE TRACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE EARLIER TREND
OF A SLOWER MOTION...ESPECIALLY LATE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE GUIDANCE AND FURTHER SUCH ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY LATER ON.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 13.8N 130.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 13.6N 131.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.4N 133.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.2N 135.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 13.2N 137.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W 55 KT
$$
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