ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 THE CENTER OF JOVA IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...EVEN WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND THIS MAKES THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO VALUES. JOVA REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH NO DEEP BANDING AND A SMALL BUT EXPANDING REA OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE PRESUMED CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AND A LIMITED OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE PROHIBITIVE AND THE WATERS WILL BE WARM FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...SO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BRING JOVA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. JOVA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND HENCE A BASIC WESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED. AFTER 72 HOURS...MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD SLOW AND BEND THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE EARLIER TREND OF A SLOWER MOTION...ESPECIALLY LATE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND FURTHER SUCH ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY LATER ON. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 13.8N 130.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 13.6N 131.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.4N 133.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.2N 135.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 13.2N 137.8W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 15-Sep-2005 14:40:19 UTC