Tropical Depression TEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2005

TEN-E IS QUITE POORLY ORGANIZED AND...EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE
CENTER.  AS A COMPROMISE AMONG LOW-CONFIDENCE CENTER FIXES...THE
CYCLONE IS RELOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE...ALBEIT ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL CENTER REPOSITIONING.

THE DEPRESSION LACKS BANDING FEATURES AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM
TAFB WAS LOWERED AT 18Z.  BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM INDICATE THAT IT WILL LIKELY ENTER A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. 
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW STRENGTHENING.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THIS
STRENGTHENING SCENARIO MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 15.0N 118.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 15.0N 120.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 122.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N 125.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 15.0N 127.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 14.5N 132.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 14.5N 137.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 14.5N 142.0W    50 KT
 
 
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