ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2005 TEN-E IS QUITE POORLY ORGANIZED AND...EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER. AS A COMPROMISE AMONG LOW-CONFIDENCE CENTER FIXES...THE CYCLONE IS RELOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE...ALBEIT ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL CENTER REPOSITIONING. THE DEPRESSION LACKS BANDING FEATURES AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB WAS LOWERED AT 18Z. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE THAT IT WILL LIKELY ENTER A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AND BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THIS STRENGTHENING SCENARIO MAY NOT MATERIALIZE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 15.0N 118.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 15.0N 120.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 15.0N 122.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 15.0N 125.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 15.0N 127.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 14.5N 132.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 14.5N 137.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 14.5N 142.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 12-Sep-2005 20:40:16 UTC